Vocabulary · one word per concept
The words, defined once.
Never invest in a business you cannot understand. The same holds for the product you read it through. Every label in the service means exactly one thing. This page is the whole list.
Price and value
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Every number below keeps those two apart.
Fair value
What the business is worth per share today: ten years of projected free cash flow plus a terminal value, discounted back to the present. Buffett calls this intrinsic value; same thing, plainer word. The AI underwrites one; save your own in the Forward DCF and it becomes the anchor your sell bands read.
Company snapshot · valuation tools · board columns
Margin of safety (MOS price)
The bargain price: half of fair value. We only call something cheap when it trades at or below this bar. The buffer is there because any forward estimate will be somewhat wrong.
Valuation tools · buy-zone signals
Growth cushion
How much faster the business can grow than the price requires, in percentage points. Positive means the business can outgrow what you are paying for. It comes from the reverse-DCF. A growth gap, not a price discount. Two readings carry the name: growth cushion (AI) uses the growth the AI finds achievable, measured at the margin-of-safety price, and is the one on Discover, the screener, the grid and the verdict; growth cushion (your value) uses the growth you believe, measured at today's price, and lives on the Company Study's Value control.
Company snapshot · Discover · screener
Expected annual return
The yearly return you lock in if fair value is right and you buy at today’s price.
Company snapshot · Forward DCF · board columns
Earnings power value (EPV)
What the existing business is worth with no growth at all: owner earnings capitalised at the same 15% hurdle the fair value uses, plus net cash per share. Price minus EPV is what the market charges for growth. Below earnings power means today’s earnings alone are worth more than the price.
Company valuation · What you pay today · Discover columns
Owner earnings
The cash an owner could take out without starving the business: earnings plus depreciation, less the capex that only maintains. We carry it as a band, free cash flow at the floor and operating cash flow less depreciation at the ceiling, and use the AI’s reasoned estimate when it lies inside the band.
What you pay today · reverse-DCF owner-earnings frame
Analyst target
The median 12-month price target from street analysts. Shown for context. Not our number, and not yours.
Valuation standing reads · forecasts
Target price (your horizon)
The output of your own model over the horizon you pick, one to five years: revenue grown at your rate, your margin, your exit multiple. Shown with the total return and the yearly return it implies. Your number, from your assumptions.
Target price tool
The work
The product is a place to write decisions down before the market tests them.
Thesis
One paragraph on why you own it: the moat, the runway, who allocates the capital, and the single risk that would break it. Written by you, dated, revisited.
Decide tab · portfolio
Kill criteria
The conditions, written in advance, that would force you to sell. Written when you are calm so they cannot be negotiated when you are not.
Decide tab · briefing discipline section
Watchlist
Names you want to own at a better price. The patient queue. Most of investing is waiting.
Portfolio · briefing
Owned
A company you actually hold. The Owned list on the portfolio page is your real positions; everything else on the page is research. A company page says Owned with your weight when it is one of them.
Portfolio lists · company masthead
Position sizing
Hard cap × conviction × cushion × safety. Each factor can only shrink the bet, never grow it. Always a percentage of the portfolio, never an amount of money.
Decide tab
Trim band · sell band
Your written policy for a name that runs past its fair-value anchor. Inside the trim band you trim by quartile; past the sell band you exit unless a fresh look raises the anchor. Below the trim band the rule is patience, not action. Bands are price over the anchor: 10% and 30% by default, yours set in Account. The anchor is your saved Forward-DCF fair value when you have one, else the AI's, and every band surface names which. A raise saved while the name sits inside a band applies after 24 hours and is journaled.
Account · Company Decide · Briefing desk
Journal
Dated notes on what you did and the state you were in when you did it. Sells and trims ask for the why, so future-you can grade past-you.
Monitor tab · quick capture
Reading the pages
A few words describe how the pages themselves work.
The fold
Every page has one reading. On a company the read leads each section and the components follow as cards, the ones you choose in Customize; on the portfolio and Discover the grid or the ledger leads and the read folds under the masthead. What you unfold stays unfolded on this browser.
One line on each page · The full material · The read
Quality score
Six AI-scored dimensions, each 0-10: moat, management, valuation, risk, optionality, business model. The composite is a fixed weighted average (moat, business model and valuation 20% each; risk and management 15%; optionality 10%) with a value-trap penalty.
Company snapshot · pillars
Reverse-DCF
The price already assumes some growth. This tool finds how much, so you can judge whether the business can beat it.
Value tab
Forward DCF
Project the cash flows, discount them back. Four levers: growth, margin, terminal multiple, discount rate. Out comes the fair value they imply. Your levers, your number.
Value tab
