Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM

Moat and Management hold this up; Risk is the soft spot.

The price needs 12.4% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 20.0% is achievable, at a 52.0% margin.

TSMC looks reasonably valued to slightly cheap because its AI-driven growth engine can deliver faster long-term expansion than the market is currently pricing in at today's price. The company is pouring cash into new fabs and packaging capacity that will pay off over the next decade as AI demand stays structurally high; its unmatched technology lead and customer lock-in let it keep high margins even as it scales. The main thing that could go wrong is a Taiwan crisis, but the company is already spreading production globally.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

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