Rigetti Computing Inc RGTI

Management holds this up; Business model is the soft spot.

The price needs -100.0% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 35.0% is achievable, at a 15.0% margin.

Rigetti trades at hundreds of times its tiny revenue because investors are betting quantum computing will transform industries in the 2030s. The math only works if the company captures a large share of a $50B+ market while dramatically improving margins from deeply negative levels. History shows most deep-tech hardware companies fail to reach that outcome, and Rigetti’s weak returns on past investment plus heavy dilution make the current price look extremely expensive.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., through its subsidiaries, builds and operates quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors the United States, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers quantum processing units (QPUs) and quantum computing systems to provide access to quantum computing systems through the cloud in the form of quantum computing as a service (QCaaS). It provides Novera, a 9-qubit chip QPU that features tunable couplers for fast two-qubit operations and a 5-qubit chip for testing single-qubit operations; Novera QPU that is based in fourth generation Ankaa-class architecture; 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q system, a multi-chip quantum computer; and 84-qubit Ankaa-3 quantum computer. The company also sells access to its quantum computers through QCaaS. In addition, the company offers Rigetti quantum cloud services, a platform that provides support for various range of programming capabilities, public or private clouds integration, and connectivity, as well as quantum operating system software that supports public and private cloud architectures. Further, it offers QCS Outpost, a distributed software environment for operating, administering, and monitoring the overall system; Rigetti Foundry Services that delivers superconducting quantum chips to advance and accelerate quantum information science and technology research and development; and professional services, such as algorithm development, benchmarking, quantum application programming, and software development. The company serves commercial enterprises, government organizations, and international government entities, as well as academia, defense laboratories, and national laboratories. Rigetti Computing, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Berkeley, California.

Write why this business works, set your own fair value, and let the briefing speak only when a rule you wrote is crossed.