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Technology · Semiconductors · US

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

$178.67 · close of Nov 9, 2026

Compounding R&D moat at the intersection of compute and AI.

AI score · High quality · analysis Oct 15, 2026
9.2 of 10

Business model and Optionality hold this up; Risk is the soft spot.

Moat9.0
Management9.0
Valuation9.0
Risk · 10 = lowest8.0
Business model10.0
Optionality10.0
Fair value
AI fair value
$237.97
as of Nov 10, 2026
Base case
$239.30
the single most likely path
Analyst consensus
$327.14
62 analysts · 12-month target
Price
$178.67
price 25% below the AI fair value

The price needs 19.0% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 28.0% is achievable, at a 46.0% margin.

NVIDIA is priced for roughly 23% annual growth over the next decade. Its AI platform and ecosystem advantages make 28% realistic, creating a positive gap that more than offsets normal risks. The stock is therefore attractive for long-term owners who believe the AI buildout lasts well into the 2030s.

The business

NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. It has a collaboration with Cisco to develop Ultra-Dense Small Form Factor Pluggable (USFP), a high-density optical module pluggable transceiver. It has a collaboration with ChipAgents to develop Build-A-Chip-Bench, a benchmark for AI agents carrying chip design tasks and The Company has a strategic alliance with MediaTek to build the next generations of AI computing platforms. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Last report Aug 26, 2026 · next Nov 17, 2026

Write why this business works, set your own fair value, and let the briefing speak only when a rule you wrote is crossed.

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General investment analysis · not personalized advice · the figures carry their dates