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Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail · US

JD.com Inc Adr JD

$28.38 · close of Nov 9, 2026

Asset-heavy distribution network whose scale efficiencies fail to produce pricing power in a low-barrier retail market.

AI score · Average · analysis Oct 15, 2026
4.4 of 10

Valuation holds this up; Optionality is the soft spot.

Moat3.0
Management5.0
Valuation7.0
Risk · 10 = lowest5.0
Business model3.0
Optionality3.0
Fair value
AI fair value
$77.93
as of Nov 10, 2026
Base case
$83.07
the single most likely path
Analyst consensus
$38.96
35 analysts · 12-month target
Price
$28.38
price 64% below the AI fair value

The price needs 0.0% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 5.0% is achievable, at a 3.0% margin.

JD trades at a very low forward multiple because investors see endless price wars and thin margins. Yet the company already generates several billion dollars of free cash flow annually and is investing in robots that should gradually lift those margins. If it can hold even 3% margins while growing 5% a year, the current price looks attractive for a long-term holder who can tolerate China competition risk.

The business

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Last report Aug 13, 2026 · next Nov 17, 2026

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General investment analysis · not personalized advice · the figures carry their dates