Exsitec Holding AB EXS
Recurring revenue from embedded system integrations compounds through disciplined M&A and efficiency gains in a fragmented Nordic market.
Management and Valuation hold this up; Optionality is the soft spot.
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Management | 7.0 |
| Valuation | 7.0 |
| Risk · 10 = lowest | 6.0 |
| Business model | 5.0 |
| Optionality | 5.0 |
The price needs 5.5% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 12.0% is achievable, at a 12.5% margin.
Exsitec looks fairly priced. It needs to grow a bit faster than the 12% I think it can sustain to justify today’s price on an owner-earnings basis, but the cheap forward multiple and the big Amesto deal give some cushion. The main risk is that AI tools start eating into its consulting work faster than the recurring software side can offset.
Exsitec Holding AB (publ) provides digital solutions to medium-sized companies in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. It offers ERP systems; AP automation; cloud-based payroll system; budget and forecasting; analytics and reporting; CRM system; procurement; warehouse management; service, construction, and contracting system; integrations; application development; IT operations; e-commerce; project management; and digital marketing solutions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Linköping, Sweden.
Write why this business works, set your own fair value, and let the briefing speak only when a rule you wrote is crossed.
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