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Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · US

Airbnb Inc ABNB

$190.29 · close of Nov 9, 2026

Trust-based global lodging marketplace where verified supply and demand compound into lower search and utilization costs for both sides.

AI score · Solid · analysis Oct 19, 2026
7.6 of 10

Management and Valuation hold this up; Optionality is the soft spot.

Moat7.0
Management8.0
Valuation8.0
Risk · 10 = lowest7.0
Business model8.0
Optionality7.0
Fair value
AI fair value
$216.16
as of Nov 10, 2026
Base case
$224.10
the single most likely path
Analyst consensus
$200.40
44 analysts · 12-month target
Price
$190.29
price 12% below the AI fair value

The price needs 8.6% growth a year for ten years. The AI thinks 12.0% is achievable, at a 35.0% margin.

Airbnb already earns very high margins with almost no capital spending. The stock price requires roughly 11% annual growth for the next decade. I believe the company can deliver 12% by expanding into hotels, adding AI features that raise spending per trip, and benefiting from long-term travel trends. That small edge, plus the durable network moat, makes the valuation reasonable with a slight margin of safety.

The business

Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. The company's marketplace connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces, experiences, and services. It also offers gift cards. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Last report Nov 5, 2026

Write why this business works, set your own fair value, and let the briefing speak only when a rule you wrote is crossed.

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General investment analysis · not personalized advice · the figures carry their dates